In 2023, there were 47.8 million immigrants, representing 14.3% of the total population, residing in the United States, according to the latest American Community Survey (ACS) from the U.S. Census Bureau. Of them, 49 percent are in the country legally as naturalized citizens, 19 percent are legal permanent residents (LPRs, also known as green card holders), 5 percent are long-term nonimmigrants, meaning they are legally admitted into the US for a temporary purpose such as tourism, business, or study, and the remaining 27 percent, or 13.3 million, are undocumented immigrants.

Just over one-quarter of the undocumented immigrants, 3,756,500, have some form of legal or procedural protection from being deported. That includes several different classifications, including people who are awaiting a formal transition to permanent resident status, people who are awaiting a decision on an asylum application, people who are victims of or witnesses to a crime in the U.S., and people who cannot be deported because their home countries are too dangerous.

Of the 1.2 million immigrants receiving a green card in FY 2023, 47 percent were immediate relatives of U.S. citizens (an uncapped visa category) and 17 percent were in family categories that are limited by visa and country caps. About 17 percent of new LPRs were sponsored by their employer or self-petitioned (including investors who create jobs), a decline from 27 percent of new LPRs in FY 2022, and 5% were here on the diversity lottery.

The diversity lottery is available to individuals from countries with low rates of immigration to the United States. Created in 1990, the lottery sets aside 55,000 green cards annually, of which 5,000 must be used for applicants under the Nicaraguan Adjustment and Central American Relief Act of 1997.

Mass Deportations Will Reduce the Number of Jobs for American-born Workers

First, undocumented immigrant workers and U.S.-born workers work in different types of jobs. Undocumented immigrants take low-paying, dangerous, and otherwise less attractive jobs more frequently than both U.S.-born workers and authorized immigrant workers. For example, almost 6% of undocumented immigrants work as housekeepers, construction laborers, or cooks, compared to about 2% of authorized immigrant workers and 1% of U.S.-born workers.

Immigrant workers in these jobs affect U.S.-born workers too. For example, when construction companies have a sudden reduction in available laborers, they must reduce the number of construction site managers they hire. Similarly, local restaurants need cooks to stay open and hire for other positions like waiters, which are more likely to be filled by U.S.-born workers.

Caregiving and household service jobs are also typical among undocumented immigrants. The availability and cost of these services in the private market significantly impact whether people can work outside the home. This research found that Secure Communities impacted the childcare market, and the supply of childcare workers fell. This reduced the number of college-educated mothers with young children working in the formal labor market.

Let’s break down the occupations

According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, in 2023, foreign-born workers, including the undocumented, accounted for 18.6 percent, or 29.1 million, of the US labor force, up from 18.1 percent in 2022. According to estimates from the Center for Migration Studies of New York (CMS) and other groups, as many as 8.3 million undocumented immigrants work in the US economy, or 5.2 percent of the workforce. They work in construction (1.5 million), restaurants (1 million), agriculture and farms (320,000), landscaping (300,000), and food processing and manufacturing (200,000), among other occupations.

Among employed men, the disparity of foreign-born workers (documented and undocumented) versus native-born workers is especially significant in natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations–22.7 percent of the foreign-born men worked in this occupational field in 2023 versus 14.0 percent of the native-born men. The occupational disparity for women was pronounced in service occupations–30.5 percent of the foreign-born worked in that occupation group, compared with 17.6 percent of the native-born, and production, transportation, and material moving occupations (15.2 percent versus 11.8 percent). By contrast, foreign-born workers were less likely than native-born workers to be employed in management, professional, and related occupations (36.1 percent versus 45.4 percent) and in sales and office occupations (13.0 percent versus 20.1 percent).

Occupations that have high numbers of undocumented immigrants working:

Construction                                                   1,544,600                    13.7%

Agriculture                                                          244,700                    12.7%

Hospitality                                                       1,002,200                      7.1%

General Services                                               500,800                      6.5%

Wholesale Trade                                                193,400                      5.5%

Transportation and Warehousing                      460,500                      5.5%

Manufacturing                                                    870,400                      5.4%

Professional Services                                        970,800                     4.7%

Retail Trade                                                       708,500                      3.9%

Mining and Extraction                                          22,100                      3.6%

Cooks, home health/personal care aides, delivery and taxi drivers, agriculture, and medical/therapy assistants are among the occupations that will continue to demand undocumented workers over the next decade.

Undocumented workers hail from Mexico (30 percent), Central and South America (20 percent), and Central and Eastern Asia (15 percent). By region, the foreign-born made up a larger share of the labor force in the West (23.9 percent) and in the Northeast (22.6 percent) in 2023 than for the nation as a whole (18.6 percent). The foreign-born made up a smaller share of the labor force than the entire nation as a whole in the South (18.1 percent) and the Midwest (10.1 percent).

Over the long term, without immigrant labor, these industries would face labor shortages. The Bureau of Labor Statistics predicts a shortage of about 135,000 healthcare workers by 2036, with immigrants currently filling 15.6 percent of nursing positions and 28 percent of healthcare aide slots. The agricultural sector relies heavily on immigrant labor, with over 25 percent of agricultural workers and 54.3 percent of graders and sorters of agricultural products immigrants.

A study found that the construction industry could face a shortfall of 500,000 workers in 2025. In 2023, over 25 percent of construction workers were immigrants. Immigrants also start businesses. Despite making up 13.8 percent of the population, immigrants represent one in five entrepreneurs who started businesses, producing $110 billion in revenue in 2022 alone.

Let’s Talk Agriculture

Immigrant farmworkers comprise an estimated 73% of agriculture workers in the United States. Farm labor is essential work that puts food on our tables across the country, powers the economy, and supports our communities, from dairy farms in Wisconsin to strawberry fields in Florida and apple orchards in Washington. All together, the food and agriculture sector is a $1.053 trillion industry.

The American Farm Bureau Federation estimates that, in total, U.S. agriculture needs 1.5 to 2 million hired workers each year. Farmers have been struggling to fill these positions; in 2019, 56% of California farmers reported being unable to find all the workers they needed over the last five years.

This is partly because, even when wages and benefits are increased, there are still not enough U.S. citizens applying. The current agricultural workforce is also aging, requiring younger workers to replace them. Immigrants have filled these shortfalls in the workforce for decades, but in recent years, fewer immigrants are coming to the U.S. to work in agriculture, a result of current U.S. immigration policy and rising incomes in Mexico.

The labor shortage puts American agriculture at a competitive disadvantage. American growers’ inability to find dependable sources of labor is a major reason for the significant increase in the amount of fresh fruit and vegetables that are imported into the U.S, costing billions in sales and tens of thousands of jobs. Without workers, crops wither in the fields, contributing to food waste and millions of dollars in lost production. The dairy industry estimates that retail milk prices would nearly double if farmers lost their foreign-born workers. Overall, agricultural output would fall by $30 to $60 billion.

Undocumented farm workers make up approximately 50% of the farm labor workforce. Without their hard work, millions of pounds of food would otherwise go unharvested. While these workers pay taxes and contribute to the economy, they are not protected by U.S. labor laws, and they live every day under the threat of arrest and family separation – all while working in extremely difficult conditions.

Despite lacking a legal immigration status, these workers and their families have lived in the United States for a long time. In general, the majority of undocumented immigrants have lived in the U.S. for more than ten years. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has found that providing legal status to current undocumented workers would have a net positive effect on the federal budget, increasing tax revenues. The CBO has also found that legalizing the undocumented population would boost economic output and increase employment for U.S.-born workers.

Our economy is improved with immigrant labor

The US economy will continue to need immigrant workers in certain industries to grow. A Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas study found that immigrant laborers have helped grow the post-pandemic economy, spurring job growth while keeping inflation down.

Many important industries will require immigrant labor well into the 21st century as an increasing number of US citizen workers retire and birth rates drop. A post-pandemic study found that the decrease of 2 million immigrants between 2019 and 2021 had a profound detrimental impact on several industries, including hospitality and service, health care, construction, and agriculture.

As several studies have found, the United States will continue to need immigrant labor in many industries moving forward. Lower levels of immigration have led to a slowdown in the economy and a rise in inflation.

If these individuals were deported, not only would businesses struggle, but federal and state revenues would decline, leading to potential budget shortfalls.

According to the American Community Survey (ACS), immigrants paid $382.9 billion in federal taxes and $196.3 billion in state and local taxes in 2022. Undocumented immigrants, using Individual Tax Identification Numbers (ITIN) numbers, paid $59.4 billion in federal and $37.3 billion in state and local taxes in 2022. Undocumented immigrants also paid $25.7 billion in Social Security taxes, $6.4 billion in Medicare taxes, and $1.8 billion in unemployment insurance in 2022, programs for which they are ineligible.

At the state and local levels, slightly less than half (46 percent, or $15.1 billion) of the tax payments made by undocumented immigrants are through sales and excise taxes levied on their purchases. Most other payments are made through property taxes, such as those levied on homeowners and renters (31 percent, or $10.4 billion), or through personal and business income taxes (21 percent, or $7.0 billion).

Six states raised more than $1 billion each in tax revenue from undocumented immigrants living within their borders. Those states are California ($8.5 billion), Texas ($4.9 billion), New York ($3.1 billion), Florida ($1.8 billion), Illinois ($1.5 billion), and New Jersey ($1.3 billion).

In a large majority of states (40), undocumented immigrants pay higher state and local tax rates than the top 1 percent of households living within their borders.

In an economic sense, immigrants and their labor contribute to the overall economy’s growth. The Congressional Budget Office recently found that immigrants will add $7 trillion to the economy over the next ten years. Because of a projected surge of 5.2 million immigrant workers by 2033, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow by $8.7 trillion over the same period, with federal taxes increasing by $1.2 trillion and federal deficits decreasing by $900 billion.

Mass Deportation Would Cause a Blow to American Industries and the Workforce

Some believe that a mass deportation effort will improve the U.S. economy and provide more jobs for U.S.-born workers. However, research consistently indicates that mass deportations would hurt the U.S. labor market and lead to worse labor market outcomes for U.S.-born workers. The fiscal and economic contributions of immigrants are often overlooked, but their payments into the federal, state, and local tax systems and into Social Security and Medicare benefit US citizens.

Mass deportation carries significant economic repercussions, particularly in industries that rely on immigrant labor. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, immigrants—many of whom are undocumented—make up 73% of farmworkers nationwide. If mass deportations were to occur, labor shortages in agriculture could lead to an estimated $60 billion in agricultural losses, causing food prices to rise sharply.

The construction industry, another sector reliant on immigrant labor, would also suffer. The National Association of Home Builders reports that 30% of construction workers are immigrants, and in some states like Texas, that number is over 50%. In New Jersey, that number is 40%. Deporting these workers would create severe labor shortages, increasing the cost of housing and slowing development projects.

In addition, the United States would lose high-skilled talent. About 1.7 million undocumented immigrants have a bachelor’s degree or higher, making up 15.4% of undocumented workers, and nearly half a million are currently enrolled in U.S. colleges and universities —students with the potential to help ease the country’s shortage of high-skilled workers after graduation.

The cost of carrying out mass deportations is also staggering. A 2016 report by the American Action Forum estimated that removing all undocumented immigrants—about 11 million people—would cost the U.S. between $400 billion and $600 billion and take 20 years to complete. This includes expenses for arrests, detentions, legal proceedings, and transportation. Meanwhile, the U.S. GDP would shrink by 5.7%, amounting to a $1.6 trillion economic loss over a decade.

A Real-World Test of the Effects of Deportation

To isolate the causal effects of deportations on the economy, economists studied the rollout of an immigration enforcement policy called Secure Communities (SC). The Secure Communities program increased information sharing between local law enforcement agencies and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to identify and deport people in the U.S. without authorization.

About 400,000 people were deported under SC between 2008 and 2014, after which SC was replaced with the Priority Enforcement Program (PEP). Male immigrants from Mexico and Central American countries were disproportionately represented among those deported through Secure Communities between 2008 and 2014.

A primary goal of the program was reducing crime. However, the share of those deported who had a serious criminal conviction was relatively small. There were broad “chilling effects” of the policy that meant even people not targeted for deportation became fearful of leaving their house to do routine things like go to work. This is partly because the program did not only target serious criminals—17% of those deported as part of Secure Communities were not convicted of any crime, and the most serious criminal conviction for 79% of those deported was non-violent— including traffic violations and immigration offenses (such as illegal entry or re-entry or possession of fraudulent documents for 8% of those deported). Researchers have found no evidence that the implementation of Secure Communities had the effect of reducing crime.

Occupations common among undocumented workers, such as construction laborers and cooks, are essential to keep American businesses operating. In “The Labor Market Effects of Immigration Enforcement,” economists have found that once SC is implemented, the number of foreign-born workers in that county declines, and the employment rate among U.S.-born workers also declines.

Conclusion

As several studies have found, the United States will continue to need immigrant labor in many industries moving forward. Lower levels of immigration have led to a slowdown in the economy and a rise in inflation.

The evidence shows that the US economy and the US citizenry benefit from the labor of immigrants, including undocumented immigrants. It argues for a reform of the US immigration system, which emphasizes legal immigration and legal status for immigrants so they can fully contribute their skills for the benefit of all.

The deportation of substantial numbers of undocumented people, most of whom work, would, self-evidently, have substantial negative consequences for those deported and their families. Research shows that mass deportation would also negatively impact the American economy and people in a number of ways:

• The U.S. economy would noticeably contract as it lost the contributions of undocumented immigrants.
• Jobs for American workers would decline. Instead of native-born Americans having new work opportunities opened up for them and replacing deported undocumented workers, research shows that overall employment would fall for the native-born.
• Instead of more competition for workers driving up wages, most American’s wages would face downward pressure as jobs were lost and the economy shrinks.
• Tax revenues would decline.
• The government would spend many billions of dollars capturing, detaining, processing, and deporting people.
• As domestic production of goods and services dropped, inflation would increase.

A More Humane Path Forward

The challenges of immigration cannot be solved through mass deportation. Instead, comprehensive immigration reform that balances border security with pathways to legal status offers a more effective and humane approach. Studies show that providing a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants would boost the U.S. economy by $1.5 trillion over 10 years, according to the Center for American Progress.

Deportation is not just a policy decision; it is a human issue. Behind every statistic is a story, a family, a community that will feel the weight of that decision for generations. As a nation built on immigration, the United States must choose a path that reflects its values of compassion, opportunity, and justice.